Habitat distribution models (HDMs) predict where suitable habitat may exist for a species, based in part on verified observations of the species in their natural environments.
These models are developed using species observation records from the Victorian Biodiversity Atlas but expand out our view of potential suitable habitat by interpolating between the records. This helps avoid biases in the species records such as observation bias (e.g. more species are observed closer to urban centres).
HDMs are an important tool to help understand species’ distributions across Victoria, or to capture species’ assemblages at a particular location. HDMs are also an integral part of other decision support tools, including Habitat Value and Strategic Management Prospects.
The modelling process helps to highlight potential suitable habitat for species, but due to threatening processes not all suitable habitat will be currently occupied by that species. SMP helps identify threats and cost-effective actions that, if implemented, may assist with increasing the extent of occupied habitat for a species.
HDMs can be viewed alongside recent robust records to better understand whether a species likely occupies a site (remembering not all areas have been adequately surveyed and there is always a risk of false absences with areas that have been surveyed). The department is working to continuously improve individual models and modelling techniques to better answer questions about species occupancy in the future.
HDMs have been developed for almost all of Victoria’s terrestrial flora and fauna species, with published versions for all listed rare and threatened species currently available to be individually viewed on NatureKit or downloaded on DataShare (link coming soon).
For more information on how HDMs are made, visit Habitat distribution models (HDMs).
Page last updated: 18/06/25